22 January 2009

Against Monopoly: Microsoft's Decline

I'm a big fan of the Against Monopoly site authors; here's a bold prediction from one of them:

Always in the past when software with substantial installed base has finally been supplanted the fall has not been gradual: Lotus and Wordperfect went from world-beaters to also rans in just a few years. I think Microsoft may surprise us by falling equally fast. There may not be much left in two years time.


zaine_ridling said...

Wow, thanks for the link. Haven't heard of that site. And I'd long forgotten how fast Lotus and WordPerfect went down (with a big antitrust push from the 'M' company), and the fact that Microsoft eventually offered a bundled suite that included an email app.

As for the speed of the decline (Microsoft has lost 2/3 of its stock value in the past 12 months and analysts recommended this week never to buy it again! now that they've burned through $200bn with only $25bn in cash left), I'm sure Microsoft will do whatever it takes to sustain as much market share as possible.

But how many countries can you buy your own software for without going under? The tipping point may well be when these countries rebuff Microsoft's short term software donations in favor of a long-term open source solution.

glyn moody said...

The book from the site's authors is also excellent - and freely available.