The Rise and Fall of TTIP, As Told in 51 Updates

This year will be make or break for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).  It is already years behind its original, hopelessly-optimistic schedule, and is now running into immovable political events in the form of the US Presidential elections, and the general elections in Germany.  If TTIP isn't wrapped up this year, it is probably dead until whenever the next attempt to push through such a global takeover of democracy begins, as it surely will.

From July 2013 until April 2015 I wrote a series of irregular TTIP Updates, which charted the latest developments of the negotiations.  They form the most detailed description of how TTIP emerged and developed during the first two years of the negotiations.  Although superseded by more recent events, they nonetheless offer a historical record of what happened during that time, and may help people understand the strange beast that is TTIP somewhat better.

These Updates were published on Computerworld UK, which has a Web page with consolidated links to the updates.  Unfortunately, re-designs and other changes at the site have led to link-rot setting in.  Although the Computerworld UK page remains the main site for these Updates, I thought it would be useful - and prudent - to offer a mirror here on Open....

Below I have linked to the mirrored Updates, which appear as separate posts on the present blog.  Since I can't extract the final versions of the columns from the Computerworld UK site, I've used my local files.  These may differ slightly from the final, published versions - if there's anything major, I'll try to edit them at some stage.  Similarly, there may be odd typos that I have missed; please feel free to point them out in the comments so that I can fix them.

I should also warn readers that there are many broken links, especially to other Computerworld UK columns, whose URLs have all changed.  If I have time, I will try to fix the more important ones of these, but given that I probably won't have time, please don't hold your breath...

Although I am unlikely to write any more updates, I am most certainly going to keep covering TTIP during this crucial year - indeed, I intend to up my coverage considerably to reflect the crucial stage of the negotiations we have now reached.  I've already written a couple of big features on the topic for Ars Technica UK, which serve as introductions to this whole area for those coming to it for the first time, and as summaries of what has happened for those who are already familiar with the main issues.

The first, entitled "TTIP explained: The secretive US-EU treaty that undermines democracy", is a 6000-word backgrounder to the whole area.  The more recent "How EU nations are being sued for billions by foreign companies in secret tribunals" concentrates on perhaps the most controversial - and dangerous - aspect of TTIP, the so-called "investor-state dispute settlement" (ISDS) mechanism that essentially places companies above national laws by giving them special tribunals in which they can sue governments for alleged "indirect expropriation" of future profits.

If you don't know about this aspect - or about TTIP in general - this is a good place to start.  Once you find out what is proposed for TTIP, I am sure that you will be outraged, and hope that you will join me in trying to do something about it.

TTIP Update l

A review of the few details that emerged from the first round of negotiations, including an attempt by the European Commission to convince us that TAFTA/TTIP is not another ACTA.

TTIP Update ll

An introduction to investor-state dispute resolution (ISDS), and why its presence in TAFTA/TTIP is a grave threat to European sovereignty, open source and the Internet.

TTIP Update III

A point-by-point rebuttal of a document in which the European Commission tries to prove that the presence of investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) in TTIP is not a problem.

TTIP Update IV

An exploration of how the public is kept in the dark over TAFTA/TTIP, and the dangerous asymmetries it contains.

TTIP Update V

A discussion of a major Wikileaks document discussing intellectual monopolies in TAFTA/TTIP’s sister agreement, TPP, and what it means for TTIP.

TTIP Update VI

An analysis of a leaked document outlining the European Commission’s communication strategy for TAFTA/TTIP, and a look at how disastrous other trade agreements like NAFTA and KORUS have been.

TTIP Update VII

Yet another, increasingly desperate attempt to justify the unjustifiable inclusion of ISDS in TAFTA/TTIP, and why the arguments simply don’t stand up to scrutiny.

TTIP Update VIII

Lifting the lid on how a new transatlantic “TTIP Regulatory Council” would bring in massive deregulation, with a consequent lowering of food, health and environmental standards in Europe.

TTIP Update IX

How an astonishing attack on Corporate Europe Observatory reveals a floundering European Commission increasingly concerned that it is losing control of the TAFTA/TTIP debate.

TTIP Update X

Another (failed) attack, this time by Karel De Gucht, the EU's trade commissioner, who laughably tries to claim that there is no lack of transparency in the TAFTA negotiations, and that it’s worth accepting the threats posed by ISDS.

TTIP Update XI

So it looks like TAFTA/TTIP is, in fact, ACTA by the backdoor – despite what Mr De Gucht has said...

TTIP Update XII

Why the US Fast Track bill guarantees that TAFTA's ISDS chapter will be one-sided and unfair for EU companies.

TTIP Update XIII

Big news: EU pulls ISDS to allow unprecedented public consultation; UK report says ISDS in TTIP would bring little or no benefit.

TTIP Update XIV

What new CETA leaks tell us about EU's plans to re-vamp ISDS - and why they aren’t enough to protect European sovereignty or democracy.

TTIP Update XV

There are growing calls to keep data protection out of TAFTA/TTIP – and to reject the agreement if the privacy of European citizens is not adequately protected.

TTIP Update XVI

More details emerge on ISDS provisions, and a rather ironic call for transparency from the paranoically opaque USTR.

TTIP Update XVII

Bad news, lots of leaks, plus debunking another misleading European Commission document.

TTIP Update XVIII

New leaks, new Web sites, a hidden threat from the “most-favoured nation” approach, and an astonishing claim that Germany wants ISDS out of TTIP.

TTIP Update XIX

A newly-discovered CETA bug shows why the European Commission needs transparency; also, why regulatory data must be opendata

TTIP Update XX

All about transparency in TTIP - or, rather, the almost complete lack of it; includes details of three phantom EU consultations I never heard about, and few took part in.

TTIP Update XXI

Why that best-case “ €119 bn” GDP boost to EU economy equates to just an extra cup of coffee every week.

TTIP Update XXII

ISDS attacks on EU nations have begun – and that’s before TTIP would make it even more likely and costly.

TTIP Update XXIII

Why the European Commission’s consultation on ISDS is a sham, and fails to provide the promised "draft".

TTIP Update XXIV

Looking at important research that finds even more holes in the European Commission’s TTIP justifications.

TTIP Update XXV

A report on a desperate high-level attempt by the US and EU to counter German scepticism, plus the video & slides of my re:publica 14 talk about why TTIP's numbers just don’t add up.

 TTIP Update XXVI

An action-packed update that includes fracking, water cannons and cosmetics – but still very little transparency.

TTIP Update XXVII

In which the European Commission’s misleading use of figures from its economic study is criticised, as is the study itself.

TTIP Update XXVIII

A major leak of EU services offer; an introduction to the top-secret TISA; and how the US it trying to buy love for TAFTA/TTIP.

TTIP Update XXIX

More on the secretive TISA negotiations; insight into the US's anti-transparency plans; and how the public is too stupid to understand TTIP.

TTIP Update XXX

More on the huge dangers of ISDS - and lots of help for responding to the European Commission’s travesty of a consultation on the same topic.

TTIP Update XXXI

Designed to be the final information on responding to the European Commission’s ISDS consultation, but we now learn the deadline has been extended because of huge numbers replying.

TTIP Update XXXII

A couple of interesting leaks, and a round-up of how TTIP is starting to enter the mainstream.

TTIP Update XXXIII

In the wake of the incredible 150,000 responses to the ISDS consultation, the revolt against this idea spreads to the highest reaches of the EU.

TTIP Update XXXIV

ISDS drama from Germany again, and how mutual recognition will undermine EU food and animal protection standards.

TTIP Update XXXV

The shape of multi-billion-pound ISDS lawsuits to come; a leak of the complete CETA agreement; and the threats lurking in US "certification".

TTIP Update XXXVI

Lots of news about CETA and ISDS, plus another slap in the face of the EU public.

TTIP Update XXXVII

Lots about CETA, and exciting plans for a European Citizens’ Initiative to let people make their views on TTIP known
TTIP Update XXXVIII

Slaps in the face of the EU public: a refusal to allow the ECI, and a "celebration" of CETA. Plus bad signs from the grilling of the new EU trade commissioner.

TTIP Update XXXIX

Nearly 50% of the claimed trade boost consists of swapping cars across the Atlantic.

TTIP Update XL

Rumours swirl that ISDS will come out of TTIP; even if it does, it's still in CETA and the new EU-Singapore free trade agreements.

TTIP Update XLI

Yet more sound and fury on the topic of ISDS in TTIP, but things remain as clear as mud.

TTIP Update XLII

Devasting new independent economic analysis of TTIP's likely effects on EU shows net losses in terms of GDP and 600,000 job losses.

TTIP Update XLIII

The problem of data flows, and why CETA's ISDS is a disaster.

TTIP Update XLIV

ISDS dangers in CETA and TTIP - and in the EU Singapore FTA.

TTIP Update XLV

They want "facts" and "hard evidence" about TTIP? Here they are...

TTIP Update XLVI

There are *already* more than €30 billion worth of ISDS claims against EU nations.

TTIP Update XLVII

The belated provision of improved transparency shows that public advocacy works.

TTIP Update XLVIII

The people have spoken: ISDS must go - no ifs, buts or maybes.

TTIP Update XLIX

New leaks show how transatlantic regulatory bodies will undermine EU and national sovereignty.

TTIP Update L
Should the views of a three-person tribunal take precedence over society's wishes?

TTIP Update LI

As resistance grows, TTIP is increasingly in trouble.

The European Commission's Great TTIP Betrayal

When the European Commission was laying the foundations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership - TTIP, also known as TAFTA by analogy with NAFTA - it was doubtless hoping that the public would ignore it, just as it had ignored countless other boring trade agreements. But of course TTIP is not principally a trade agreement: it aims to go far beyond "merely" liberalising trade by attacking "behind the border" barriers.

These "non-tariff barriers" - NTBs - are what you and I call health and safety regulations, environmental protection, labour laws etc. They are all things that make life a more pleasant place - especially in Europe, where they are particularly strong; but they are also things that decrease the profits of companies that must obey them. TTIP is about removing as many of these as possible, so as to boost corporate profits.

Of course, that's not how the European Commission can frame things. Indeed, after the public began to wake up to what TTIP really meant, the commissioner responsible for leading the TTIP negotiations, Karel De Gucht, was forced to make high-profile statements denying that the agreement would lower standards:

Let me be clear on this very important point: we are not lowering standards in TTIP. Our standards on consumer protection, on the environment, on data protection and on food are not up for negotiation. There is no “give and take” on standards in TTIP.

Simple logic tells us that this can't possibly be true. If two completely different regulatory systems are to be brought together - the avowed aim of TTIP - there are only three possibilities. Either the side with the higher standards levels down; the side with the lower standards levels up; or there is mutual recognition of each other's standards. The US has clearly stated that it is not prepared to level up - it won't accept EU bans on chlorine-washed chickens, hormone beef or GMOs.


Mutual recognition, although apparently different, is in fact identical to levelling down: if both regulations are acceptable, manufacturers working to the higher set will be at a disadvantage commercially. They will therefore either relocate their factories to the country with the lower standards, which are cheaper to implement, or lobby for the higher standards to be levelled down, threatening either to leave the country, or shut down. Politicians always give in to this kind of blackmail, so EU standards would inevitably be lowered to those of the US as a result of mutual recognition.


But it has become increasingly clear that there is another way for the European Commission to circumvent its own promises that TTIP will not lower standards. The trick here is that the European Commission will lower standards *before* TTIP; so technically speaking it is not TTIP that brings about that dilution - it occurred "independently". Thus the Commission will be able to put its hand on its heart and swear blind that it kept its word not to sell out EU standards in TTIP, while at the same time changing the regulatory context in such a way that the US will be able to export things that are currently banned by strict EU legislations.


We're seeing more and more examples of this. Here, for example, is how new GMO regulations will allow US companies to bring in GM food:

Genetically modified crops could be grown in the UK from next year after the EU ministers relaxed laws on the controversial farming method.

Maize that has been engineered to resist weedkiller is the first to be approved but all commercial GM crops will not be given the green light for another 10 years.

Owen Patterson, the Environment Secretary, has long supported the introduction of GM crops in the UK and voted in favour of the changes on Thursday.

He said: “This is a real step forward in unblocking the dysfunctional EU process for approving GM crops, which is currently letting down our farmers and stopping scientific development.

Here's how the EU's Fuel Quality Directive, designed to discourage the use of highly-polluting carbon fuels, is being drastically weakened [.pdf]:

Since its inception in 2009, the Fuel Quality Directive (FQD), a European Union regulation aimed at reducing the climate impact of transport fuels, has been attacked by powerful lobby interests that do not want the EU to take action to curtail the use of particularly greenhouse gas intensive fossil fuels.

...

these attempts to weaken this landmark climate policy seem to have been successful. If recent media reports are correct, the European Commission has decided to significantly weaken the FQD and align its regulatory standards with the wishes of the oil industry, the US trade negotiators [for TTIP] and the Canadian government. Compared to a previous proposal from 2011, it would be considerably less effective in cleaning up Europe’s transport fuels and preventing the most climate polluting fuels, including tar sands, from entering Europe.

Most recently, we have learned that the European Commission is preparing to allow endocrine disruptors in pesticides - another key demand from the US side in TTIP. Unfortunately, the source for this information, Inside US Trade, is behind a paywall, so I can't give a link, but will just quote a couple of key passages:

One of the options proposed by the commission in a June 17 "roadmap" is to shift from the current EU approach of banning the use of all endocrine disruptors in pesticides toward a model that could allow them to be used as long as certain steps are taken to mitigate the risk. 

This risk assessment-based model is favored by the U.S. and EU pesticide industries and is the approach employed under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's "Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program." Such a model seeks to evaluate both whether a hazard exists and if it can be mitigated by limiting exposure, in order to allow the marketing of an otherwise dangerous product.

As you can see, this amounts to abandoning the EU's Precautionary Principle, and adopting the completely different risk-based approach of the US. Aside from the fact that this shows that the European Commission's promises that standards would not fall, that the EU would not be forced to adopt US approaches, and that public health in Europe would always be safeguarded, were worthless, this also disregards the EU's Treaty of Lisbon, which explicitly states:

Union policy on the environment shall aim at a high level of protection taking into account the diversity of situations in the various regions of the Union. It shall be based on the precautionary principle and on the principles that preventive action should be taken, that environmental damage should as a priority be rectified at source and that the polluter should pay.

What's particularly interesting about the latest move by the European Commission is that the industry sources in the article quoted above point out that it represents a move to a "science-based" approach, something they have been demanding (note, too, that Owen Paterson also spoke of "scientific development" in the passage quoted above.) 

This is part of consistent campaign to paint the Precautionary Principle as "unscientific". In fact, this reframing is precisely what I predicted would happen a year ago. The key point is that "science" in the abstract does not exist: there is a continuum of good science and bad science - where the latter often includes experiments carried out by corporate scientists who miraculously produce results that match their paymaster's desires.

It's not just me saying this. Yesterday the following article appeared in the Guardian on the subject of pesticide research - the area that the European Commission wants to overhaul radically, moving towards a "science-based" approach:

Criticial future research on the plight of bees risks being tainted by corporate funding, according to a report from MPs published on Monday. Pollinators play a vital role in fertilising three-quarters of all food crops but have declined due to loss of habitat, disease and pesticide use. New scientific research forms a key part of the government’s plan to boost pollinators but will be funded by pesticide manufacturers.

That is, as I pointed out, when companies pay for research, they tend to get the answers they want.

“When it comes to research on pesticides, the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) is content to let the manufacturers fund the work,” said EAC chair Joan Walley. “This testifies to a loss of environmental protection capacity in the department responsible for it. If the research is to command public confidence, independent controls need to be maintained at every step. Unlike other research funded by pesticide companies, these studies also need to be peer-reviewed and published in full”.

This again is something that I advocated last year. If companies want us to take their results seriously - and in principle I don't have problem with that, provide the science is sound and independent - then they must publish their findings in peer-reviewed journals and, crucially, publish *all* of their results as open data, for anyone to check and explore further. If they won't do that, we will know that they have something to hide.

In the meanwhile, expect the European Commission to start invoking "science-based" approaches to policy more and more, and that these strangely always mean that the European Union should lower its standards to those of the US, which already uses this "tainted" approach.

But however the Commission wants to package this massive shift, and whatever lipstick it puts on this particular pig (sorry, pigs, nothing personal), this is a fundamental betrayal at the very deepest level. It is truly disgraceful - not to mention ungrateful - that at every turn the European Commission seems to prefer to serve US corporations rather than the European public that pays the Commissioners' not-inconsiderable salaries. It's another reason why the whole of TTIP - not just the already terminal ISDS - must be rejected.

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Could Open Source Make GMOs More Palatable?

As a recent DailyDirt noted, opinions on the safety of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are sharply divided. But that heated argument tends to obscure another problem that Techdirt has often written about in other fields: the use of patent monopolies to exert control, in this case over the food chain. By inserting DNA sequences into plants and animals and obtaining patents, the biotech industry is granted surprisingly wide-ranging powers over how its products are used, as the Bowman case made clear. That's potentially problematic when those products are the foods that keep us alive. 

On Techdirt.