Five years ago, I wrote an article about the relatively new class of netbook computers. I suggested the ultra-low price machines running GNU/Linux posed a problem for Microsoft. That's because it needed to charge something for Windows, pushing the price of Windows-based netbooks above similar systems running free software. As I wrote:
The rise of the netbook has been an extraordinary saga. When the Asus Eee PC was first launched at the end of 2007, it seemed to come from nowhere: there was no real precedent for such a low-cost, small machine, using solid state storage and running GNU/Linux. The brilliance of Asus's move was shown not just by the rapid uptake of this new form-factor, but also the high level of satisfaction – the only element viewed less positively was the small size of keyboard, an inevitable consequence of the design....
On Open Enterprise blog.
Here's an excellent point:Even Windows-based netbooks are good news for open source, though. Firefox is pre-loaded on the millions of Windows netbooks that Asus is shipping, and many netbooks come pre-loaded with numerous other open source applications. That means that any more people are gaining experience with good open source applications as soon as they unbox their new computers--undoubtedly a positive trend.
Building on that insight, one thing that might be useful would be to create a site specifically for those running Windows XP on netbooks, with a range of open source software that's particularly suitable - because it's free, requires little resources and is fast.
Remember OQO? It was a really innovative machine, well ahead of its time. Essentially it was a netbook before they existed, but it made one big mistake: it ran Windows XP rather than GNU/Linux (even though it was quite capable of running the latter).
This meant that it needed higher specs than a GNU/Linux machine with similar performance, and a licence from Microsoft (not a cheap one either: this was well before the GNU/Linux netbooks persuaded Microsoft to cut some deals on Windows XP). Both factors pushed up its price. That, in its turn, meant that this neat little machine never really took off - unlike the Asus Eee PCs.
The final result?
"We are sad to report that due to financial constraints, OQO is not able to offer repair and service support at this time. We are deeply sorry that despite our best intentions, we are unable to provide continued support for our faithful customers. Please accept our sincerest apologies"
It would, of course, be overly simplistic to lay to blame for OQO's problems exclusively at the door of Windows XP; but it's an interesting thought experiment to imagine a GNU/Linux-based OQO launched at Asus Eee PC price levels back in 2004. Would it have pre-empted Asus's move and cornered what became today's burgeoning netbook market? Would OQO have become one of the computer giants? We'll never know....
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One of the most vexed questions at the moment is the state of the netbook market. What are the returns for GNU/Linux-based systems? And is it true that Windows XP is all-conquering here? Unfortunately, despite all this sound and fury, there are few data points to provide much guidance. So some news from the the OLPC community is particularly interesting.
As you may recall, one of Microsoft's bigger "victories" was getting OLPC to offer Windows XP versions alongside the original Sugar-based system, running on GNU/Linux:
It was almost exactly one year ago that Nicholas Negroponte announced an agreement between OLPC and Microsoft to bring Windows XP to the XO-1 to great turmoil. I vividly remember the late-night flood of e-mails and IRC chats where everyone was trying to figure out just what that announcement really meant.
Someone from the One Laptop Per Child News site has had the excellent idea of following things up:I've been wondering about what ever happened to these Windows XP-based OLPC trials. I haven't really heard anything about them in quite some time. Now more recently I've asked around and found there is a good reason why I haven't seen anything: countries are choosing Sugar over Windows XP for their XO deployments.
Apparently the conversations are going pretty much as many of us had expected: Initially country representatives inquire if Windows XP runs on the XO laptop. That doesn't really come as a surprise - for many people Windows is the definition of a computer. However, upon further investigation every country decided to stick to Sugar.
So, is this evidence that XP is a damp squib in the OLPC world? And what implications does it have for netbooks?
Here's what he said:"The economy is helpful. Paying an extra $500 for a computer in this environment -- same piece of hardware -- paying $500 more to get a logo on it? I think that's a more challenging proposition for the average person than it used to be."
I think this is a very frank analysis of the problem for Microsoft: after all, who's going to pay extra money just to get the Windows logo on a netbook, when they can get the same features for less with free software...?
As I've noted before, you can tell open source has entered the mainstream when political parties try to outbid each other in establishing their open credentials. Further evidence of this trend now comes from India, where The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the largest opposition party, has released its “IT vision”, document which includes a healthy chunk of openness....
On Open Enterprise blog.
As I've been telling anyone who would listen, one of the key recent trends has been the "race to the bottom" in terms of pricing for computer systems. The only real winner here (aside from the end-user) is open source - proprietary systems cannot cut prices enough, and are rarely flexible enough to allow the kind of experimentation that is necessary at this end of the market.
Here's another great example of the kind of thing I have in mind:Can a computer get any smaller and cheaper than a netbook? Marvell Technology Group Ltd. thinks so.
The Silicon Valley chip maker is trying to create a new category of inexpensive, energy-efficient devices it calls "plug computers," for which it would supply the integrated processors.
Strongly resembling those vacation timers that turn on your lights at night to ward off potential robbers, a plug computer is more of a home networking gadget that transforms external hard drives or USB thumb drives into full network-attached storage (NAS) devices.
Aside from the form-factor, the other thing of note is the expected price for these GNU/Linux-based systems:
Marvell has already announced a handful of other resellers that plan to build plug computers. But it hopes to attract far more, so that it can eventually price its SheevaPlug chips low enough for vendors to profitably sell plug computers for as little as $49, Mukhopadhyay said.
At first sight, it's not clear why anyone would want one of these extremely small computers; but at prices around $50 you can bet all kinds of unexpected uses will start popping up. It's not hard to imagine a day when a house or office is full of dozens of tiny, low-cost and low-energy GNU/Linux-based devices, all talking to each other and other systems across the Net. Juding be the speed at which netbooks have caught on, it's probably closer than we think.
There's been a lot of sound and fury flying around about the split between GNU/Linux and Windows XP sales on netbooks, and what that means for the larger desktop sector. Some have used low figures for the former to suggest that GNU/Linux *still* stands no chance with the general public. But maybe what we need are more datapoints - ones like this, perhaps:While MSI told us a few months back that Wind netbooks running SuSE Linux saw 4x higher return rates than that of XP machines, Dell has had quite the opposite experience with its Inspiron Mini 9 offering with Ubuntu. “A third of our Mini 9 mix is Linux, which is well above the standard attach rate for other systems that offer Linux. We have done a very good job explaining to folks what Linux is,” says Dell’s Jay Pinkert.
Dell attributes part of the Linux growth to competitive pricing on the Ubuntu SKUs. “When you look at the sweet spot for this category it is price sensitivity, and Linux enabled us to offer a lower price entry point,” added Dell senior product manager John New.
The key point here is that the manufacturer must make it clear what the customer is getting for the super-low price. Kudos to Dell that they seem to have managed that.
Oh, and could we please have less whining by other netbook manufacturers about their GNU/Linux sales, since it might well be your *own* fault, not that of free software...
There are two schools of thought about netbooks. The first is that they are simply another kind of notebook - smaller, a bit cheaper, but otherwise nothing really new. The second is that they are a completely new market sector - a view that I have been propounding for almost as long as they've existed
One indication that they are distinct is that the prices of netbooks are still falling rapidly - and will continue to fall. That's in contradistinction to notebooks, where prices tend to be much more stable, but features are added over time. The netbook is about *minimum* acceptable functionality, while notebooks are about achieving near-desktop capabilities (themselves constantly improving) in a package that's portable.
Here's another proof-point:Dell fires back at the Taiwanese market leaders with the Mini 9n. Starting at just $250, this Ubuntu netbook is easily one of the cheapest on the market from a brand-name manufacturer.
The catch? The netbook only comes with 512 MB of RAM and a 4 GB hard drive. But remember it uses Ubuntu, which runs significantly more efficiently than Windows. This means of course that it can only run Linux programs but give me Firefox and Open Office and I can conquer the world.
This is just what notebook manufacturers fear: a "race to the bottom", as Sony so memorably put it. Dell's participation in that race will send shivers down the spine of manufacturers who thought they could ride the netbook wave with their low-end notebooks.
Do I hear $200?
Hmm, lookee here: Microsoft wants to hire a Director, Open Source Desktop Strategy. Here are the details:The Windows Competitive Strategy team is looking for a strong team member to lead Microsoft’s global desktop competitive strategy as it relates to open source competitors. Our team mission is to gather intelligence, create business strategies, and drive action in the marketplace for the Windows Client business. In this job, you will be asked to think strategically, put yourself in the mindset of our competitors, influence multi-million dollar marketing campaigns, and drive high-level executive thinking around business strategy.
As the Director of Open Source Desktop Strategy you will need to drive research and build holistic strategies across dynamic market segments like PCs, NetBooks, and mobile internet devices. You will be responsible for bringing our business strategy to life by discovering and sharing the market insights that set the foundation for our platform value dialogue with customers and the industry.
Nothing could say plainer that Microsoft now fears for the desktop. You don't appoint someone whose job is to lead a "global desktop competitive strategy" that embraces PCs, netbooks and mobile internet devices after years of assuming the desktop was yours forever unless you have a clear and vivid idea that there is a new and real threat in this sector. And you don't have to be a mind-reader to guess that Microsoft is thinking of GNU/Linux here.
The job would probably be quite attractive to people were it not for two killer responsibilities:Create a rational set of proof points that promote Microsoft’s comparative value
Build a fact-based marketing plan that articulates the Windows Client value proposition to partners and customers
The problem is, of course, that there is no "rational set of proof points", and no facts on which to build a marketing plan. It will be interesting to see which masochist gets the job. I look forward to, er, analysing his or her attempts to square the circle. (Via Matthew Aslett.)
Hp's new Mini 1000 Mi is starting to win plaudits all over the place. It's not hard to see why: it looks cool, has cool specs, and a decent price. But I think the really important element is the new interface that Hewlett-Packard has developed (more screenshots here):
HP's new Mobile Internet (Mi) software offers the online content and applications you want with just one click. Using the intuitive desktop, you can access email, internet, pictures, video, and music faster and more easily than ever.
Dashboard-style interface lets you personalize your Mini by adding favorite websites
Applications automatically launch when you power on – and web pages stay live and dynamically update while connected
Integrated HP MediaStyle provides quick access to photos, music & entertainment
Chat face to face with the built-in HP Mini Webcam
So what? you may ask: isn't that all pretty standard for netbooks these days. It is, and that's the point: one of the biggest names in computing has joined the fray, not by doing something completely different, but by recognising that it needs to follow the new norms.
The fact that HP has spent time and money developing its new interface argues that the company is serious about the GNU/Linux netbook sector. Its presence bespeaks a new maturity of the marketplace – and perhaps a heightened interest in open source at the company. It's also an indication of how vibrant this market is, and how it offers the chance for companies to be innovative in a way not possible with Windows-based offerings.
Netbooks have been one of the surprise successes over the last year. They have also been one of the most contentious areas of computing. There are conflicting reports on most aspects of the sector – in terms of market share, rate of returns etc. - and it is easy to assume that it's all fad and fashion. Against that background, it's good to have some figures – any figures – that might throw a little light on this promising sector.
On Open Enterprise blog.
News that for probably the first time Microsoft would be making significant numbers of its workforce redundant has inevitably been picked up and chewed over widely. In truth, the net numbers of job losses are low – a couple of thousand, allowing for new intakes. What's really noteworthy is the underlying reason for those losses: that the cracks in the Microsoft empire are finally becoming evident to even the most myopic of observers.
On Open Enterprise blog.
Good point here:Even if manufacturers may be getting smaller margins on netbooks, I suspect they will add skins, cool designs and other less technical features to help sweeten their profits.
This, together with the addition of 3G plans, means that netbooks are becoming more like mobiles.
Surprisingly spot-on piece in FT today about netbooks. Key bit:The netbook category is posing a challenge for Microsoft, the biggest software group, as manufacturers turn to alternatives to its Windows operating system, writes Chris Nuttall.
To help cut costs, the free Linux operating system is featured in many products, while the use of flash memory rather than hard drives along with ‘virtualisation’ techniques means that Windows is being bypassed in others.
Consumers are beginning to associate netbooks with “instant-on” features, which mean that they can be used in a few seconds rather than waiting a few minutes for Windows to be booted.
As I've just written on Open Enterprise, the rise of the ultraportable/netbook was one of free software's biggest successes - and surprises - last year. It was particularly important for getting GNU/Linux into the hands of punters, many of whom were quite happy with it, contrary to the conventional wisdom.
Looks like things are going to get even better for free software:Laptops will soon go on sale in Marks & Spencer and Next for less than £100, in the latest sign that the consumer electronics industry is tackling the recession by selling ever-cheaper products.
Elonex, a small British computer maker, will start selling its ‘net books’ in the two fashion chains from February, in an attempt to win over a new generation of female shoppers to cheap computers.
It promises its machines, which can fit inside a handbag, offer users all that laptop can – internet surfing, emailing, word processing, storing photographs – but on smaller scale. The screens are just 7 inches wide, the keyboard is slightly smaller than a normal laptop keyboard and the memory is limited.
At that price, they must be GNU/Linux. Free software-based systems as an impulse buy in M&S? 2009 is already looking good....
One of the surprises of 2008 was the runaway success of the ultaportable/netbook form factor. Now that systems running Windows XP are available people tend to forget that it was the low cost and small footprint of GNU/Linux that made this category possible in the first place. Without free software, the new machines would have been forced to run Windows Vista, making them too slow and too expensive - and hence failures. It was only because Microsoft saw GNU/Linux walking away with this nascent market that it executed a massive U-turn over Windows XP, and allowed it to be installed on these systems.
On Open Enterprise blog.
I've written before about the increasing uptake of, and innovation around, free software in Russia. Here's another fascinating experiment, involving the Vladivostok State University of Economics and Services, which is giving students netbooks running the Mandriva distro:Интересный эксперимент решили провести во Владивостокском государственном университете экономики и сервиса — вместо традиционных бумажных конспектов и ведомостей учета посещений вся работа вуза переведена в электронную форму. А преподаватели и студенты (все без исключения) в настоящее время бесплатно получают нетбуки Asus Eee PC 900 для работы с электронными ресурсами вуза как в учебных аудиториях, так и дома. Всего до 4 декабря только учащимся будет передано 997 нетбуков.
[Via Google Translate: An interesting experiment decided to meet in Vladivostok State University of Economics and services - instead of traditional paper notes and account statements visits all the work of high school is available in electronic form. And teachers and students (without exception) are currently free netbuki Asus Eee PC 900 to work with electronic resources in university classrooms or at home. Total until December 4, only 997 students will be transferred netbukov.]
This use of netbooks has had a knock-on effect on the university's coursework, which is now freely available for download (although bizarrely, many of the 400 courses are in Microsoft Office formats).
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